Syrian Blowback

Ahmed Quraishi, 18 August 2006

BEIRUT, Lebanon—There’s something unique happening in Lebanon. If you are a Lebanese politician, you think twice before criticizing Syria—a country that, until recently, has been the main powerbroker in Lebanon.

But yesterday, two key Lebanese politicians blasted away the Syrian government and its President Bashar Assad, in a way unimaginable only a year ago.

At the core of the new tensions is the question of disarming Hezbollah’s military wing. This is fueling new tensions in the Middle East.

Pakistani Foreign Minister Mr. Khurshid Mehmood Kasuri was the latest visitor to Beirut to see firsthand how these tensions are playing out. Mr. Kasuri, according to sources in the Lebanese Prime Minister’s House, was part of a meeting on Wednesday between the Lebanese Prime Minister, Mr. Fouad Siniora, and the foreign ministers of France, Turkey, Pakistan, Malaysia, and a representative from Qatar—nations that are considering a role in the new and more powerful U.N. force in southern Lebanon.

A minister who is close to Hezbollah was present in the meeting at one point and had an interesting exchange with the Lebanese prime minister, in front of all the foreign ministers present. Let’s just say that it’s better not to mention at this point what was said.

But let’s mention this: Future course of events in Pakistan’s western neighborhood, the Middle East, can be detected in Lebanon.

On Thursday, Mr. Saad Hariri, the son of the assassinated former premier Rafic Hariri, accused Syria of benefiting from the “blood of the children of Qana, Gaza, and Iraq.”  This, in effect, means accusing Syria of supporting terrorism in Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories.

Mr. Hariri also threatened Mr. Bashar Assad, the Syrian president, that an international tribunal would explore the growing international suspicion that Syria had a role in the mysterious murder of the late Lebanese premier in February.

Mr. Hariri is an influential young man. He is not only an heir to a business empire but also someone with very good relations with countries as diverse as the U.S., Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey. And, as of yesterday, he became the first Lebanese politician to accuse Syria’s Assad of being “a hater and a liar” when it came to Lebanon.

Mr. Hariri was not alone in the anti-Syria outbursts. A close ally and a prominent politician, Mr. Walid Jumblatt, accused both the Hezbollah chief and the Syrian president yesterday of destroying Lebanon at the expense of enhancing the negotiating position of Iran and Syrian with the United States. In other words: A Lebanese politician accused Syrian and Iran of staring a Lebanese war with Israel with the purpose of diverting West’s attention from Syria’s involvement in the Hariri assassination, and from Iran’s involvement in a militarized nuclear program.

“Is it only Lebanon’s duty to [fight] Israel and get destroyed in the process?” Mr. Jumblatt questioned sarcastically yesterday in a televised address carried live by several Lebanese TV networks.  “How come we don’t see Mr. Assad fighting in the Golan Heights,” he said, referring to the Syrian territory occupied by Israeli since 1973.

Mr. Jumblatt also addressed Hezbollah’s chief Hasan Nasrallah directly. “Who gave you the right to decide to launch a preemptive war against Israel without consulting the Lebanese government and senior politicians?”

These bold Lebanese outbursts came after what many observers described as a ‘coordinated media blitzkrieg’ by the Hezbollah-Damascus-Tehran axis. In a matter of three days, Iran, Syria and Hezbollah made it clear they will not tolerate the disbanding of Hezbollah’s military wing.

“Israel could not end Hezbollah in a war. How can we allow the Lebanese state to do so in peace?” inquired Sheikh Hasan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s chief, in a televised address Tuesday.

There is some good news, however, for Mr. Jumblatt and Mr. Hariri. Muslim governments such as Turkey, Malaysia and Indonesia have agreed to contribute soldiers to the expanded UNIFIL, the U.N. force on the Lebanese-Israeli border. This new force, commanded by France, will have the power to fight Hezbollah if the militia tried to attack Israel and instigate another war in Lebanon.

Lebanon yesterday began the deployment of 15,000 soldiers in Hezbollah’s stronghold of south Lebanon. It’s yet to be seen how Hezbollah will react to this.