The War Is Not Over

Ahmed Quraishi, 23 August 2006

BEIRUT, Lebanon—The new U.N. Security Council resolution tries to dictate ceasefire terms to the winners: Hezbollah and its backers, Iran and Syria. So why would the winning party give in?

That’s why the war might stop for now. But it’s far from over. The U.N. resolution is an attempt. Not an end. Understanding the game is very simple. Just listen to what two heavyweights of Lebanese politics have to say about it.

First is Mr. Saad Hariri, parliamentary majority leader and heir to Rafic Hariri, the assassinated former premier. His backers are Saudi Arabia and the United States. He stayed away from the war for a whole month. But he surprised everybody here in Beirut when he landed at the airport hours before the U.N. passed the resolution. I don’t have to mention here how he cut through Israel air force’s thick blanket over Lebanese skies.

The younger Hariri drove straight to see the Lebanese prime minister and then came out to say this: “Lebanon has nothing to do with this war. Lebanon was used as a playground for other countries’ interests, including Syria and Iran. We are determined not to allow this any longer.”

A second political heavyweight in Lebanese politics is Mr. Walid Jumblatt, a close ally of the assassinated former premier. His take on the ceasefire is simple. He told Pakistan’s PTV Network yesterday, “You have Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states and Egypt on one side, and this Hezbollah-Syria-Tehran axis on the other. We’ll have to wait and see who proves stronger.”

This is what it comes down to. Hezbollah has survived the might of a lethal army. It’s a win for a militia over a state. Already last night, Hezbollah radio station, Al Noor, was broadcasting victory songs.

But it’s also decision time for Hezbollah. It will have to decide whether it accepts the authority of a central government in Beirut.

Hezbollah is not used to sharing bed with anyone. The resolution calls on the Lebanese army to move into the militia’s strongholds in south Lebanon and for Lebanon’s government to assert monopoly over carrying and buying weapons. This means gradually disarming Hezbollah’s military wing.

The problem is Hezbollah is so embedded inside Lebanon that it seems inconceivable if it will ever be tamed. In other words, if you are a militia and you not only survive a war but manage to rain hundreds of rockets on the enemy with massive effect, why would you give it all up?

My driver here, who is a Lebanese from the north, surprised me with a simple answer. “By playing hard in Lebanon, Iran has shown America that it will be more painful to attack Iran in the future.”

Hezbollah is entrenched in amazing ways. The heavily bombarded southern suburbs of Beirut, the pre-war Hezbollah headquarters, are still under the militia’s control despite the daily Israeli bombing.

The minute you get inside that area, Hezbollah security comes into action, immediately sending a team of two or four guards, riding speeding motorcycles, to stop you from taking pictures. The reason: they don’t want the Israelis to calculate the extent of destruction in Hezbollah areas.

These motorbike-riding Hezbollah cadres are said to have played a role in operating rocket launchers against Israel. They would suddenly show up, push the trigger on the launcher and then disappear on bikes that military radars cannot detect.

The fact is Hezbollah did not waste a day in the past six years – since Israel’s withdrawal from south Lebanon – to prepare for this war. But as brilliant as Hezbollah chief Hasan Nasrallah is, he definitely did not expect that his enemies were ready with a bigger plan, turning the tables on the militia.

Will Hezbollah accept a voluntary disarmament of its force?

I posed this question to Mr. Walid Jumblatt, the Lebanese politician. “It is not possible to disarm Hezbollah by force,” he told me. “The militia has to do it voluntarily […] Will Hezbollah respect Lebanon’s sovereignty or will it continue to defend the interests of the Syrian regime and continue to receive money and weapons from Iran? That’s the question now.”

The answer to this question will decide the fate of U.N. resolution 1701. Meanwhile, the war continues.

The writer was a PTV World correspondent in Beirut during the conflict. This report was first published by Pakistan’s The Nation daily newspaper.